When to buy a cruise - MSC Seaside Sept. 21
This budget cruise
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The target sailing: The MSC Seaside cruise leaves Sept. 21 from Miami.
The charts:
Sept 21 is the target sailing. The chart covers 4.5 months of pricing from about Jan 15 to May 29. This period is 8.5 to 4 months before sailing.
June 15 is the comparison sailing. It is the same ship and itinerary with the closest departure - 2 weeks - to the time of writing. It shows pricing 5 to .5 months before sailing.
Analysis
NCL
The final payment is typically due 120 days prior to sailing.
Actual sailing
The sailing experienced a significant price decrease on Feb 14, about 7 months before sailing.
The sailing experienced a significant price decrease on March 19, about 6 months before sailing and been mostly level since.
The sailing experienced a small price increase on April 21, 5 months before sailing.
The sailing experienced a small price increase on May 28, 4 months before sailing, also just after the 4 month to sailing payment deadline.
Comparison sailing
The sailing experienced similar price decreases and a small price increase 4, 3, and 2 months before sailing.
Afterward pricing continued to increase and either cabin classes filled up or the price recovered to the prior level before the last price drop.
Recommendation
The price decreases and increase happened at about the same time in real-life and not at the same time as measured in time before sailing, which is odd (maybe not for MSC?). The pricing for the same November sailing also shows the mid-month Feb. and Mar. drops. It appears that price drops were cruise line-wide for this market, likely a general attempt to rebalance supply and demand.
Buy now. If the target sailing continues to follow the comparison’s price trajectory, cabin classes will fill and/or prices will continue to increase.
Disclaimer
All sailings are different. Pricing and availability can change for many reasons. The use of a comparison sailing is suggestive - not predictive - of a target sailing’s price trajectory. Our analyses are intended to only show one way to interpret price changes and a best guess recommendation. Regularly watch your sailing pricing to ensure it responds as expected.